Incumbent presidents traditionally have an awesome benefit after they search a second time period. However Joe Biden’s bid to safe 4 extra years faces specific headwinds.
– The age challenge –
Biden turned the oldest president in US historical past when he took workplace in 2021, aged 78. He could be 82 at his second inauguration and 86 by the point he left workplace — nearly a decade older than the earlier record-holder, Ronald Reagan, who completed his second time period at 77.
Though Biden’s annual medical report launched in February says he’s “fit” for the job, questions persist on the dangers of a sudden well being deterioration at such a complicated age. On the very least, Biden will likely be taking the difficulty of age into uncharted territory.
– The economic system, silly –
Invoice Clinton’s marketing campaign famously centered on “the economy, stupid” because the leitmotif for a profitable bid in opposition to incumbent George H.W. Bush.
The destiny of Biden’s reelection may also possible carefully observe how People really feel about their wallets.
The general post-Covid economic system is performing strongly however polls present that many individuals usually are not feeling what the macro-economic knowledge says is occurring.
Consultants stay cautious of attainable recession. The ‘r’ phrase will be deadly to a marketing campaign, though Biden might escape injury if the hunch was shallow and ended on the proper time.
Day-to-day probably the most potent financial problem for Biden is taming inflation. It is a difficulty he has little management over however on this he seems to be in for some luck: costs stay far greater than pre-pandemic, however are on a regular decline.
The deepest potential pothole, nonetheless, is a US debt default as early as this summer time — prompting international panic — if Biden’s Democrats and the Republicans can not agree on the often uncontroversial debt ceiling extension.
– Trump or Trump different? –
A vital consider Biden’s probabilities is whether or not the Republican he faces known as Donald Trump.
Biden’s model is rooted in his 2020 defeat of a man who upended US politics, then threatened the nation’s democracy by refusing to settle for his loss. Biden would relish a rematch, assured that People would take the identical resolution.
Biden has stated he could be “fortunate” to face Trump once more and “I believe I can beat” Trump.
Nevertheless, Trump is a seasoned campaigner with an nearly fanatical base.
Polls additionally present Biden would face a steep problem from Florida’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, who is predicted to announce a run.
DeSantis carefully follows Trump’s ideology however would current himself as a break from the previous — probably spoiling Biden’s narrative. At 44, DeSantis would additionally supply a stark distinction to the incumbent Democrat.
– Black swans –
Some argue that Trump misplaced largely due to Covid — a pandemic that got here from the blue, reworked the world, and badly uncovered the US president’s chaotic administration type.
What inventory market watchers dub a “black swan event” may be lurking on the market for Biden.
Potential sport changers embody fallout from the Justice Division probe into his son Hunter Biden’s taxes and overseas lobbying actions. The president doesn’t seem to be implicated however his son’s questionable enterprise previous is embarrassing.
The response on Ukraine has to date been a huge plus for Biden, who has led the Western push in opposition to Russia. Nevertheless, a cataclysmic twist — for instance Russia resorting to a nuclear weapon — might but see Biden blamed.
A US-China warfare was lengthy nearly unimaginable however Taiwan — the staunchly pro-Western territory that Beijing has vowed to management — looms more and more giant on the world stage.